Poker outs: counting outs and the odds of hitting your draw
An out is an unseen card that completes the hand you are drawing to. Count the outs for common draws, read the exact odds for 1 to 20 outs, see where the rule of 2 and 4 drifts and connect your outs to pot odds.
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Maintained by Pokerista Academy. The chart is calculated from the number of unseen cards, and the outs in each example are checked by dealing every unseen card through the Academy’s hand evaluator. Independent poker-expert review: pending (how the material is checked).
What is an out in poker?
An out is an unseen card that would complete a specified improvement to your hand. Name the improvement before you count, such as a flush, a straight or a pair of aces, because the answer depends on it. The count then tells you how many of the cards you cannot see would get you there.
After the flop you have seen five cards: your two hole cards and three on the board. That leaves 47 unseen cards, and 46 after the turn. Your opponents’ cards, folded hands and burn cards are unseen too, so they stay in the count. The chart below treats every unseen card as equally likely to be dealt next.
Outs also differ in quality. A clean out completes your draw without giving a likely opponent a better hand. A dirty out completes your draw but helps someone else too, for example by pairing the board so that a set becomes a full house. Counting comes first; discounting the dirty outs comes after.
How to count outs for common draws
Count the cards that achieve the named improvement, and count each physical card once. Every example below was checked by dealing each of the 47 unseen cards as the turn card and ranking the resulting hand.
Flush draw
9 outsHand Flop
Four hearts are in view, so nine of the suit’s thirteen cards are unseen. Any of them makes a flush.
Outs: Q♥ J♥ 10♥ 8♥ 7♥ 5♥ 4♥ 3♥ 2♥
Open-ended straight draw
8 outsHand Flop
Four ranks in a row with room at both ends. Any nine or any four completes the straight: four cards of each rank.
Outs: 9♠ 9♥ 9♦ 9♣ 4♠ 4♥ 4♦ 4♣
Gutshot (inside straight draw)
4 outsHand Flop
Five-six-eight-nine is missing its middle card. Only the four sevens complete it.
Outs: 7♠ 7♥ 7♦ 7♣
Two overcards
6 outsHand Flop
Three aces and three kings remain. Each makes a pair higher than any card on the board, which is an improvement, not a guaranteed winner.
Outs: A♥ A♦ A♣ K♠ K♥ K♣
Flush draw plus open-ended straight draw
15 outsHand Flop
Nine hearts plus four queens and four sevens would be 17, but the queen and seven of hearts belong to both groups. Count each card once: 9 + 8 − 2 = 15.
Outs: A♥ K♥ Q♠ Q♥ Q♦ Q♣ 8♥ 7♠ 7♥ 7♦ 7♣ 6♥ 5♥ 4♥ 3♥
Flush draw plus gutshot
12 outsHand Flop
Nine hearts plus the three tens that are not hearts. The ten of hearts is counted once; it makes a straight flush. A nine or an eight pairs a hole card, but a pair is not the improvement being counted.
Outs: A♥ K♥ Q♥ 10♠ 10♥ 10♦ 10♣ 6♥ 5♥ 4♥ 3♥ 2♥
Set to a full house or four of a kind
7 outsHand Flop
Any king or deuce pairs the board for a full house, and the last seven makes four of a kind: 3 + 3 + 1.
Outs: K♠ K♦ K♣ 7♥ 2♠ 2♥ 2♦
Pocket pair to a set
2 outsHand Flop
Two sixes are in your hand, so two remain: a two-outer.
Outs: 6♥ 6♣
Not every four-card straight is open-ended. With an ace at one end, as in A♠ K♦ on Q♣ J♥ 4♠ or A♠ 2♦ on 3♣ 4♥ 9♠, only one rank completes it: 4 outs. A double gutshot such as 9♠ 7♦ on 6♣ 5♥ 3♠ has two inside gaps, so any four or eight works: 8 outs, the same as an open-ended draw.
Outs change from street to street. Give the set of sevens above a blank 4♦ turn and the three remaining fours join the list: 10 outs for the river. With one pair made from one hole card, the target matters again: A♠ Q♦ on Q♣ 8♥ 3♠ has 2 outs to trips and 3 more to two pair, aces and queens.
Poker outs chart: odds for 1 to 20 outs
The chart gives the exact chance of seeing at least one out, rounded to one decimal place, and the same chance as odds against. It assumes a well-shuffled 52-card deck and counts only your two cards and the board as known.
- Turn card, from the flop: outs ÷ 47.
- River card, from the turn: outs ÷ 46.
- Turn or river, from the flop: 1 − (47 − outs)/47 × (46 − outs)/46. The product is the chance of missing twice, so one minus it is the chance of at least one out.
- Odds against: the ways to miss compared with the ways to hit. With nine outs on the flop, 38 of the 47 unseen cards miss the turn and 9 hit it, so the odds against are 38 : 9, about 4.2 : 1. For the turn and river together, count pairs of cards: 703 of the 1,081 possible pairs miss twice, so the odds against are 703 : 378, about 1.9 : 1. Pot odds are quoted the same way. A figure below 1 : 1 means the draw is more likely to arrive than not.
| Outs | Turn card (from the flop) | River card (from the turn) | Turn or river (from the flop) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chance | Odds against | Chance | Odds against | Chance | Odds against | |
| 1 | 2.1% | 46.0 : 1 | 2.2% | 45.0 : 1 | 4.3% | 22.5 : 1 |
| 2 | 4.3% | 22.5 : 1 | 4.3% | 22.0 : 1 | 8.4% | 10.9 : 1 |
| 3 | 6.4% | 14.7 : 1 | 6.5% | 14.3 : 1 | 12.5% | 7.0 : 1 |
| 4 | 8.5% | 10.8 : 1 | 8.7% | 10.5 : 1 | 16.5% | 5.1 : 1 |
| 5 | 10.6% | 8.4 : 1 | 10.9% | 8.2 : 1 | 20.4% | 3.9 : 1 |
| 6 | 12.8% | 6.8 : 1 | 13.0% | 6.7 : 1 | 24.1% | 3.1 : 1 |
| 7 | 14.9% | 5.7 : 1 | 15.2% | 5.6 : 1 | 27.8% | 2.6 : 1 |
| 8 | 17.0% | 4.9 : 1 | 17.4% | 4.8 : 1 | 31.5% | 2.2 : 1 |
| 9 | 19.1% | 4.2 : 1 | 19.6% | 4.1 : 1 | 35.0% | 1.9 : 1 |
| 10 | 21.3% | 3.7 : 1 | 21.7% | 3.6 : 1 | 38.4% | 1.6 : 1 |
| 11 | 23.4% | 3.3 : 1 | 23.9% | 3.2 : 1 | 41.7% | 1.4 : 1 |
| 12 | 25.5% | 2.9 : 1 | 26.1% | 2.8 : 1 | 45.0% | 1.2 : 1 |
| 13 | 27.7% | 2.6 : 1 | 28.3% | 2.5 : 1 | 48.1% | 1.1 : 1 |
| 14 | 29.8% | 2.4 : 1 | 30.4% | 2.3 : 1 | 51.2% | 1.0 : 1 |
| 15 | 31.9% | 2.1 : 1 | 32.6% | 2.1 : 1 | 54.1% | 0.8 : 1 |
| 16 | 34.0% | 1.9 : 1 | 34.8% | 1.9 : 1 | 57.0% | 0.8 : 1 |
| 17 | 36.2% | 1.8 : 1 | 37.0% | 1.7 : 1 | 59.8% | 0.7 : 1 |
| 18 | 38.3% | 1.6 : 1 | 39.1% | 1.6 : 1 | 62.4% | 0.6 : 1 |
| 19 | 40.4% | 1.5 : 1 | 41.3% | 1.4 : 1 | 65.0% | 0.5 : 1 |
| 20 | 42.6% | 1.4 : 1 | 43.5% | 1.3 : 1 | 67.5% | 0.5 : 1 |
Seeing two cards does not double your chance. With nine outs, doubling the 19.1% turn chance gives 38.3%, but the exact figure is 35.0%. Doubling counts the runouts where the turn and the river are both outs twice; with nine outs those are 3.3% of all runouts.
The two-card column also assumes you see both cards. That holds when all the chips are in on the flop. When more betting can follow, a flop call may buy only the turn card, and the one-card column is the one to use.
How accurate is the rule of 2 and 4?
The rule of 2 and 4 is a mental shortcut. Multiply your outs by 2 for the chance on one card, or by 4 on the flop for the chance by the river when you will see both cards. The table puts each estimate next to the exact figure. A positive gap means the shortcut is too high.
| Outs | Rule of 2 | Gap vs turn card | Rule of 4 | Gap vs turn or river |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2% | −0.1 | 4% | −0.3 |
| 2 | 4% | −0.3 | 8% | −0.4 |
| 3 | 6% | −0.4 | 12% | −0.5 |
| 4 | 8% | −0.5 | 16% | −0.5 |
| 5 | 10% | −0.6 | 20% | −0.4 |
| 6 | 12% | −0.8 | 24% | −0.1 |
| 7 | 14% | −0.9 | 28% | +0.2 |
| 8 | 16% | −1.0 | 32% | +0.5 |
| 9 | 18% | −1.1 | 36% | +1.0 |
| 10 | 20% | −1.3 | 40% | +1.6 |
| 11 | 22% | −1.4 | 44% | +2.3 |
| 12 | 24% | −1.5 | 48% | +3.0 |
| 13 | 26% | −1.7 | 52% | +3.9 |
| 14 | 28% | −1.8 | 56% | +4.8 |
| 15 | 30% | −1.9 | 60% | +5.9 |
| 16 | 32% | −2.0 | 64% | +7.0 |
| 17 | 34% | −2.2 | 68% | +8.2 |
| 18 | 36% | −2.3 | 72% | +9.6 |
| 19 | 38% | −2.4 | 76% | +11.0 |
| 20 | 40% | −2.6 | 80% | +12.5 |
The rule of 2 is always a little low. Two per out compares with 100 ÷ 47 ≈ 2.13 from the flop and 100 ÷ 46 ≈ 2.17 on the turn, so the gap grows by about 0.13 and 0.17 points per out. At 12 outs the rule says 24%, against 25.5% for the turn card and 26.1% for the river card.
The rule of 4 is slightly low up to six outs, never by more than half a point, and too high from seven outs on. It stays within a point up to eight outs, then drifts: 36% against 35.0% at nine outs, 48% against 45.0% at 12, 60% against 54.1% at 15 and 80% against 67.5% at 20. Big draws are where it misleads. Multiplying by four is close to doubling the one-card chance, and doubling counts every runout where both cards are outs twice. There are more of those runouts as the outs increase, so the overcount soon outgrows the small amount by which four per out falls short of doubling.
Above eight outs, subtracting the number of outs over eight gets closer: 12 outs gives 48 − 4 = 44%, against the exact 45.0%. Across 9 to 20 outs this adjusted estimate is never more than 1.2 points out.
The larger errors come from using the wrong multiplier. On the turn there is one card to come, so nine outs is 19.6%, not the 36% that multiplying by four would suggest. On the flop, multiplying by four assumes you will see the river without facing another bet.
Discounting outs: when a completed draw still loses
An outs count measures how often your draw completes, not how often you win. Discounting means removing outs, or giving them less weight, when they complete your hand but give a likely opponent something better.
You hold A♥ 4♥ on 10♥ 7♥ 3♣, and the chips go in on the flop. In a tournament run under Poker TDA Rule 16, all hands are turned face up once a player is all-in and all betting by the other players is complete. Your opponent has 10♠ 10♣: a set of tens.
Seven cards are known, so 45 are unseen and 990 turn-and-river pairs are possible. Dealing every one of them:
- you make a flush or better on 360 runouts (36.4%);
- 116 of those (32.2%) also pair the board, and the set becomes a full house or four of a kind, which beats a flush;
- you win 262 runouts in all (26.5%): 244 with a flush and 18 with runner-runner straights.
The flush arrives more often here than the chart’s 35.0% for nine outs, because the two exposed tens are known not to be hearts: the nine hearts are among 45 unseen cards rather than 47. Known cards change the denominator; a stronger opposing hand changes which outs are worth counting.
The turn shows where the losses come from. On a K♥ turn your flush is ahead, yet 10 of the 44 river cards still lose: the three remaining kings, sevens and threes pair the board, and 10♦ makes four tens. On a 3♥ turn you complete your flush and are already behind a full house.
At the table the opponent’s cards are hidden, so discounting is an estimate. Think about the hands an opponent is likely to hold, then give less weight to the outs that lose to them. Common cases:
- a card that completes your straight can complete an opponent’s flush, and a flush beats a straight;
- your flush can lose to a higher flush;
- a card that pairs the board can give a set a full house, as above;
- an overcard that pairs you can still lose to two pair or better.
Two overcards show that even clean-looking outs are not all winners. A♠ K♦ on 9♣ 6♥ 2♠ has six outs, which the chart puts at 24.1% by the river. Against 9♠ 8♠ exactly, an ace or king arrives on 249 of 990 runouts (25.2%), slightly more often than the chart says, because neither of the opponent’s cards is an ace or a king. A♠ K♦ wins 211 of them: 21.3% overall. On the other 38, the opponent improves to two pair, three of a kind or a flush.
From outs to pot odds
Outs tell you how often a card arrives. Pot odds tell you how often a call must win to break even. Comparing the two is the usual reason to count outs.
This is the hand from the Pokerista Academy homepage. You hold 9♥ 8♥ in the big blind on J♥ 7♥ 2♣. The pot is 6 BB and the button bets 3 BB, so calling costs 3 BB and makes the final pot 12 BB.
3 ÷ (6 + 3 + 3) = 25%
The draw has 12 outs: 25.5% for the turn card alone, and 45.0% by the river if you see both cards without paying more. The rule of 2 says 24%, which would put the turn card just below the price; the exact figure is half a point above it. In ratio form, 35 unseen cards miss and 12 hit, so the odds against are 35 : 12, about 2.9 : 1 (the 12-out row of the chart). The pot odds are 3 : 1. When the odds against are shorter than the pot odds, the chance is above the break-even point.
Before relying on that comparison, discount any dirty outs, check whether the call buys one card or two, and allow for chips that may go in on later streets. The pot odds guide works through the price side in detail, and its pot odds calculator takes the outs from this chart as an input. These figures describe the stated cards and assumptions; they are study material, not a recommendation for any real game.
Look up outs, equity and implied odds in the glossary, or return to the outs section of the beginner guide. In the course catalog, the course “Calculate drawing chances precisely” (Pokerista Pro) covers overlapping and dirty outs in more depth.
Sources & further reading
The explanations are Pokerista Academy teaching material. These reference sources cover the underlying rules and probability concepts; they do not endorse the Academy or certify its exercises.
- Robert’s Rules of Poker (version 11, PDF) — Robert Ciaffone · via pagat.com
- Tournament rules, procedures & addendum (2024 edition, PDF) — Poker Tournament Directors Association
- Independent and mutually exclusive events — OpenStax · Introductory Statistics 2e
- Ranking of poker hands — John McLeod · pagat.com
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